General chat: Talk about literally anything because you do anyway.

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What Hoenn starter are you picking?

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Post by Dregadude on Sat May 03, 2014 2:22 pm

I don't think so, at least not in terms of news. Except if you're interested in that Pokemon Art Academy game, I guess that's news.
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Post by d_what on Sat May 03, 2014 4:12 pm

Uh YEAH she missed my TOTALLY AWESOME GIMMICK IDEA ohwait no you didn't. That team qualifies, congratulations. I wonder if we can make it somewhat tough in-game? Alakazam goes without saying, but maybe Focus Sash Abra and Eviolite Kadabra? Though the focus sash is better on Alakazam... Hmmm. Does Abra even GET any moves? I think it does, iirc it was pretty good in little cup last gen?

Hey guys here's an idea; post photos of your boxes. Not all of them obviously. Just the ones you think are interesting, e.g. with your team in it or all the things you've trained or your legacy box (the one with all the shitty Pokemon that are high levelled and never get used but you're too attached to dump them into bank). Boxes agogo.

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Post by OverlordJ on Sat May 03, 2014 6:19 pm

Abra gets moves, just not by level up, TMs and breeding moves are just fine.

Kadabra with Evolite can set dual screens for surprisingly good defenses.

Alakazam is obvious and can make great use of Life Orb, IIRC
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Post by d_what on Sat May 03, 2014 6:46 pm

Yeah I was thinking similar things myself. Abra would be useless defensively, so give it synchronise on the off chance it gets status'd, a focus sash, and guard split/encore/thunder wave/something. Kadabra has decent offenses all things considered so it wouldn't be useless, though it'd be a bit slow, so yeah screens and basic coverage moves. And then Alakazam would be an all-out sweeper, Psyshock/Focus Blast/Hidden Power Ice/Fire (version differences) and SOMETHING. I think that kind of trainer would be fun to play against on a route.

Now that you've settled into XY OJ, have you tried any interesting breeding things? I have a spare Power Band if you want it, won it from the pokemiles site thingy. XY make it so easy, it really can't be stressed enough.

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Post by OverlordJ on Sat May 03, 2014 9:16 pm

Oh, I am mostly currently trying to breed a shiny Ghastly with good IVs. Both parents have 5 31 IVs (everything except HP) and since one is English and one is German, I should have a higher chance to get a shiny.

I filled like, at least two boxes yet, though I didn't get a shiny so far. Though from what I heard, that's no surprise.

After that I plan to chain breed so that I have at least 1 5 IV male for every egg group. I obviously got one for Amorphous, which I can breed into Grass and Water 1 (I could also breed it into Mineral but I'd need a Yamask/Cofagrigus for that)

Thanks to wondertrade I also got a japanese Pancham with the same 5 31 IVs, which means I already got one in both Human-like AND field, which is pretty great. I also got a 5 IV english Sigilyph (everything but Initiative) and Zubat (everything but HP) which means I got two for the flying egg group. Further more, I got a japanese Goomy (everything but special-defense) which gives me the Dragon egg group. I also got a Magnemite with 5 IV, though I can't chainbreed from that obviously. The Pancham and the Sigilyph are female and the Zubat and Goomy are male.

After I made sure I got at least most of my IV needs covered, I'll probably breed a new generation of my current ingame team, with better IVs. I already have Haunter and I can easily get Gardevoir from that. Pancham makes a 5 IV Kadabra easy and works with Chesnaught, too, Goomy helps with Charizard. That means only Aegislash will be tricky. I also have a Linoone on my team but only for HMs and Pickup, so it doesn't really need great IVs and even if it did, I could easily get them from Pancham again.

After that, I might start working on a competitive team, but that's still a while off.

EDIT:

by tricky, I mean that I'll need to breed a 5 IV male Phantump, to breed a 5 IV male Ferroseed, to breed a 5 IV Aegislash
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Post by Captain on Sat May 03, 2014 9:48 pm

(what's going on with this team shizzle im confused)
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Post by Hanky Panky on Sat May 03, 2014 10:06 pm

cephalopodAscendant wrote:Well, we'll just drag him back here. Maybe only long enough to make HP an admin, just in case something really weird comes up.

i'm already full admin status and have been for a good while.

also oj that english gastly the one i traded you
did i trade one to you

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Post by OverlordJ on Sat May 03, 2014 10:18 pm

Yes, that English Haunter is indeed from you.

Actually, I should probably evolve both her and my Kadabra while I have internet access...

I'll try to do that tomorrow though, it's kind of getting late
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Post by Dregadude on Sat May 03, 2014 10:21 pm

I'm finally ev-training all the awesome shit I got from Spark's friend Dan and also through Wonder Trade. Currently that includes a 5-IV Drought Vulpix, a shiny Vibrava, a 5-IV Greninja, a something-IV Bagon, and a perfect Lopunny.

E: Ooh speaking of shiny Vibrava I totally forgot to put this here! I did this last night until like 2 am or something.

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Post by cephalopodAscendant on Sat May 03, 2014 10:40 pm

I'm not surprised that you haven't gotten a shiny yet, OJ. If we assume that the Masuda method stayed proportional to the base shiny encounter rate in XY, your chances of getting a shiny after at most 60 eggs (2 full boxes) is about 8.55%. Not that great. If the Masuda method stayed fixed at 6/8192 instead, your chances are even worse at about 4.37%. If you want a 50/50 shot at a shiny, you'll have to breed either about 472 (first case) or 946 (second case).
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Post by Hanky Panky on Sat May 03, 2014 11:08 pm

it took me at least 15 boxes with gastly
that was after 10-15 boxes for IV breeding

i think masuda method is proportional to the increased shiny rate in x/y. from what i read on various forums while doing my own search, pre-shiny charm MM breeding is around 1 in 800 or something

shiny charm jacks it up to about 1 in 450 from what i've read.

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Post by kotakun on Sat May 03, 2014 11:23 pm

i know why you havent gotten a shiny yet
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Post by d_what on Sun May 04, 2014 5:56 am

it's okay Kotakun, we know. We know.

You know OJ, you could look into getting the Shiny Charm. It's kind of a pain, especially without reliable internet access, but it's worth it really just because it means finishing the dex. I only have the Oval charm but MY GOD does it make everything easier.

I wanna check your math cA! Not because I doubt you, just because I like probability. What are we assuming the rate is? Can't really guess the Masuda one so we can be cautious and assume the default, since it can't be exceeded that way.

P(At least one shiny in 60 boxes) ==

1 - P(no shinies at all) ==

1-(P(not shiny) AND P(not shiny) AND etc 60 times), (P(not shiny) = 1 - shiny rate)

==

1-((1 - 1/4096)^60)

which turns out to be:

0.01454343351, or ~1%. Sorry cA. Bear in mind the number changes depending on what you use as the shiny rate. I didn't include the Masuda method; using gen V's one, the chance of at least one (note that the chance of exactly one is much, much smaller) shiny in 60 boxes is

1-((1 - 1/1365)^60)

==
0.0430193938, or ~4%, but that's still not close to 8%. Mind you, the actual rate is probably even greater than that, and that's without the Shiny Charm. And over 400 Pokemon (which is something I've done before) the chance of at least one being shiny is much higher. Umm. 25%.

...I think you should spend your time getting the Shiny Charm.

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Post by OverlordJ on Sun May 04, 2014 6:02 am

Well, at least breeding gastlys means I have enough good pokemons for wondertrade.

D_what, if you see this, would you like a 5 IV gastly in return for your bulbasaur?

EDIT: Ninja'd by D_What

I have thought about the shiny charm though there are still MANY pokemons I am missing.

I could probably get some of them from wondertrade, I suppose.

I don't even have an Oval charm yet, though getting eggs doesn't really take that long, most of the time, especially if you are breeding with pokemons from different trainers. Though I do plan to get one, for example, getting a bulbasaur isn't just great because I love bulbasaur but also because it'll help me finish my Kalos Dex
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Post by d_what on Sun May 04, 2014 6:07 am

Heheheh actually OJ there's a decent chance your Gastly is actually descended from one of my own... I traded Hanky one to get him started Very Happy

I would suggest getting the Oval charm first, it's moderately easier and all the Pokemon there are more or less available, any that are very difficult should be easy enough to get via GTS. Without a decent Bank stock it'll be harder to fill the rest of the dex though...

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Post by OverlordJ on Sun May 04, 2014 6:09 am

Say, D_what, do you have time right now?

Maybe we could do the trading of Bulbasaur if you don't mind.

I'll be traveling back home today, so I won't have Internet on my 3DS for about a week soon, and it'd be neat if we can do the trading before that Smile

EDIT: Also, why have only six of you added my friendcode so far?
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Post by kotakun on Sun May 04, 2014 7:40 am

d_what wrote:it's okay Kotakun, we know. We know.

You know OJ, you could look into getting the Shiny Charm. It's kind of a pain, especially without reliable internet access, but it's worth it really just because it means finishing the dex. I only have the Oval charm but MY GOD does it make everything easier.

I wanna check your math cA! Not because I doubt you, just because I like probability. What are we assuming the rate is? Can't really guess the Masuda one so we can be cautious and assume the default, since it can't be exceeded that way.

P(At least one shiny in 60 boxes) ==

1 - P(no shinies at all) ==

1-(P(not shiny) AND P(not shiny) AND etc 60 times), (P(not shiny) = 1 - shiny rate)

==

1-((1 - 1/4096)^60)

which turns out to be:

0.01454343351, or ~1%. Sorry cA. Bear in mind the number changes depending on what you use as the shiny rate. I didn't include the Masuda method; using gen V's one, the chance of at least one (note that the chance of exactly one is much, much smaller) shiny in 60 boxes is

1-((1 - 1/1365)^60)

==
0.0430193938, or ~4%, but that's still not close to 8%. Mind you, the actual rate is probably even greater than that, and that's without the Shiny Charm. And over 400 Pokemon (which is something I've done before) the chance of at least one being shiny is much higher. Umm. 25%.

...I think you should spend your time getting the Shiny Charm.
just to save you time in probability calculations if 1/p is the odds of something happening then the odds of it not happening after n trials is (1-1/p)^n which for large p ends up being approximated by e^(-n/p) which for 60 trials at a 3/4096 chance is .0429937 which is still very close to what you calculated but a lot faster to find
also the 8 percent is assuming the masuda method got its odds doubled with the supposed doubling of shiny pokemon chance into gen vi then the odds would be calculated as 3/2048

though if you want to be technical the odds did get doubled anyways because twice 0 is still 0
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Post by d_what on Sun May 04, 2014 8:06 am

heheheh didn't see that last line coming. I really should have. And I was looking for that whole "how many trials" thing but it's been so long since I've done any non-basic probability I couldn't remember what it was called Sad So then at what number of eggs would you need to hatch in order to be *within a certain range of, pick whatever* sure of getting at least one success, I mean egg? Because I think that's what people REALLY want to know. Obviously it can't be a set answer because probability doesn't work that way, but it'd be nice to have a milestone.

P.S OJ I'm phasing in and out of internet existence at the moment. I'm elusive. I'm basically Mew. But you're gonna have to try to catch me online if you want that Bulbasaur.

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Post by OverlordJ on Sun May 04, 2014 8:28 am

Well, I'll be online now, feel free to contact me if you are online
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Post by d_what on Sun May 04, 2014 8:30 am

okay I see you now. Anything will do OJ, the bulbasaur might be worth something to you but it's nothing to me (sorry bulby.)

edit: sure, hit me up when you're free


Last edited by d_what on Sun May 04, 2014 8:45 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by OverlordJ on Sun May 04, 2014 8:32 am

Yay, Bulbasaur~

EDIT: Oh, I forgot, would you mind helping me evolve Haunter and Kadabra?

EDIT 2: Thanks D_What  Very Happy 
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Post by kotakun on Sun May 04, 2014 11:10 am

d_what wrote:heheheh didn't see that last line coming. I really should have. And I was looking for that whole "how many trials" thing but it's been so long since I've done any non-basic probability I couldn't remember what it was called :(So then at what number of eggs would you need to hatch in order to be *within a certain range of, pick whatever* sure of getting at least one success, I mean egg? Because I think that's what people REALLY want to know. Obviously it can't be a set answer because probability doesn't work that way, but it'd be nice to have a milestone.
if the odds are 1-e^(-n/p) for a success then to have a q chance of failure (so the math works out nicely) you need to have pln(1/q) trials or for quick common ones
50% certain is pln2~.69p
~63% certain is p
90% certain is pln10~2.3p
99% certain is pln100~4.6p

insert joke about p being infinity here because the odds are 0
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Post by ilikeoctopus on Sun May 04, 2014 12:04 pm

Oh my god guys your math makes me want to go for the shiny charm again

You can't do this to me when finals and standardized testing is right around the corner  Sad 
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Post by Hanky Panky on Sun May 04, 2014 1:37 pm

just for information

it took 17 eggs for shiny scyther.
it took roughly 500 for shiny gastly
i'm about 150 eggs into breeding for venipede except i keep getting stuck playing something else like tales of the abyss or ys memories of celceta or warframe or muramasa rebirth or final fantasy x or shin megami tensei iv when i sit down to game
so who knows how long that will be.

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Post by cephalopodAscendant on Sun May 04, 2014 1:45 pm

Yeah, I was taking a shortcut and using Mathematica. Here's the commands I used.

Code:
NSolve[x==CDF[GeometricDistribution[6/4096],60],x]

Assuming a proportional increase, and

Code:
NSolve[x==CDF[GeometricDistribution[6/8192],60],x]

Assuming no increase. NSolve makes it spit out a decimal approximation instead of the gigantic fraction it normally does. CDF means Cumulative Distribution Function. I hope you can figure out what GeometricDistribution is.
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