PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

Post by d_what on Tue Nov 19, 2013 9:17 am

... I think IVs are easier to check than IVs :0 mind you I only deal in 31s or not-31s. That's pretty easy.

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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

Post by cephalopodAscendant on Tue Nov 19, 2013 12:13 pm

That program will also make it fairly trivial to hatch shinies. Basically, every game has a Shiny Value from 0 to 4095 (making a couple reasonable assumptions based on common programming practices). Each Pokémon is generated with a value in the same range, and if it matches the value of the OT, the Pokémon is shiny (this is how we figured out that the encounter rate has been doubled to 1/4096 this generation). With eggs, the Shiny Value is generated when you receive the egg, but the OT is only determined once it hatches, so given a large-enough group of people, you should be able to find a person who will hatch it as a shiny.
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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

Post by phantasmalDexterity on Tue Nov 19, 2013 2:31 pm

That's exactly what it is. There's already a large enough group on reddit. I was conducting this experiments to verify the process. And indeed. It's working.

It started on smogon, this Saturday.
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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

Post by d_what on Tue Nov 19, 2013 7:31 pm

Haha that's adorable Very Happy shiny by numbers! I don't like RNG for how it shoehorns the game into a bunch of bits and digits but, well, Props to the guys for working this out as a team!

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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

Post by NinteNerd on Thu Dec 05, 2013 11:54 am

since i know nobody checks sigs, i'm posting to say that i now have a DITTO SAFARI.
so that's a thing.
i think i've added about 7 since i first made that post.
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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

Post by phantasmalDexterity on Thu Dec 05, 2013 12:46 pm

I also have one. My FC list is getting kinda filled up, now I have over 70 people in it.

Hehehe, nobody will ever guess who is the first person on the list.
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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

Post by OverlordJ on Thu Dec 05, 2013 1:11 pm

That reminds me, I am currently watching ebay, trying to get a 3DS and possibly a X or Y game, once i have them both I'll let you know what my friendcode is or whatever that things called.
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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

Post by cephalopodAscendant on Thu Dec 05, 2013 1:22 pm

Decided to come to the dark side, eh?
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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

Post by Dregadude on Thu Dec 05, 2013 3:48 pm

Only if the dark side is the side with a lot of fuckin good games.
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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

Post by cephalopodAscendant on Thu Dec 05, 2013 3:59 pm

I thought that went without saying.
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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

Post by ilikeoctopus on Thu Dec 05, 2013 4:00 pm

I still need a Ditto safari pretty badly, seeing as I've been mostly crossing my fingers and praying to cod whenever I breed things (aka all the time).
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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

Post by Spark Eletran on Thu Dec 05, 2013 4:28 pm

the dark side was always the best side guys
i thought it was pretty obvious
Also why do all of you want Ditto Safaris exactly????
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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

Post by Gelatino on Thu Dec 05, 2013 4:37 pm

ditto with imposter is good competitively
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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

Post by cephalopodAscendant on Thu Dec 05, 2013 4:39 pm

Not to mention, everything you catch in the Friend Safari is guaranteed to have at least 2 perfect IV's, which is obviously very nice for breeding.
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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

Post by Spark Eletran on Thu Dec 05, 2013 6:26 pm

ohhh right
i knew imposter ditto was good but it seemed like they wanted it for breeding so i had discarded that possibiltiy
keep forgetting about the 2 ivs thing
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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

Post by tinning3 on Thu Dec 05, 2013 7:11 pm

If I understand correctly, the 2 IVs are guaranteed max, but that doesn't necessarily mean they'll be the only two does it? It should be possible to find a ditto with all maxed IVs if you catch a whole bunch, though obviously not great for passing down hidden abilities. I remember reading something to that effect being possible in B/W, anyway.
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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

Post by d_what on Thu Dec 05, 2013 7:17 pm

I have two full boxes of ditto :/

It is actually really strange how much use they all get. I never set out to use a ditto... It just ends up happening.

P.S octi don't forget egg groups! Besides genderless pokemon, you're bound to have loads of 'mons in your safari that can supply 2 IVs minimum to the chain you want. You'll have to do it every time you start breeding until you get something for every egg group, but it's better than nothing.
Also GTS seriously. I don't know why people don't do this. It's the best resource the game offers, better than Dittos even. *shock!*

(What I mean specifically is, sometime before you plan on starting breeding, log onto the gts and have a quick look for level 1 pokemon of the kind you want. Well over half the time they'll be excellent breeding partners with the right stats, egg moves or nature - and occasionally all three. Plus because they're a different ID your own pokemon will love them and you have an increased chance of getting a shiny. If over half an hour you haven't had any luck finding available trades, pop in one of your own spare level 1s and people will oblige within 12 hours. Under half an hour if you give up something currently fashionable like Honedge, Froakie or Pumpkaboo and ask for something that people will generally have., e.g not level 1 Doduo or Wailmer.)


Edit: not likely T. The chance of getting 3 perfect IVs in the safari is about 1 in 12. 4 is closer to 1 in 200. And those chances don't scale up linearly... 6 is not going to happen.

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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

Post by cephalopodAscendant on Thu Dec 05, 2013 10:02 pm

Those odds aren't quite right, unless I've screwed up my calculations. IV's range from 0-31, so the odds of getting exactly three perfect IV's from the Friend Safari would be about 2.84%. The odds of getting four would be about 0.09%, the odds of five would be 0.003%, and all six would be an incredibly improbable 0.0001%. For the record, the chances of finding a shiny in the wild prior to Gen VI were about 0.01%. And d_what, remember that the increased chance of finding a shiny is only if the original game was a different language than yours; otherwise, the only benefit is an increased chance of finding eggs (not a bad thing in and of itself, but still not quite as nice).

Math stuffs (if you want to check my work):
So the chances of any one IV being perfect is 1/32. By extension, the chances of any one IV being anything less than the maximum is 31/32. 2 IV's are guaranteed to be perfect, so we're really only looking at 4 IV's at once, and we only care about how many are perfect right now. If we let n be the number of perfect IV's we're looking for, then the odds are equal to (1/32)^(n-2)*(31/32)^(6-n) for 2<=n<=6.
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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

Post by ilikeoctopus on Thu Dec 05, 2013 10:32 pm

That... was actually really helpful. I didn't even think of checking GTS for mates for my Pokemon (ever since the horror stories from one of my friends). I'll admit I am often pretty lazy when it comes to egg groups, but I will give it a try when I get to the rest of my chains! Thanks much, d_what Very Happy

And honestly, I don't mind about shiny rates as much as how often I get eggs. My Pokemon hate each other and it takes forever just to get one.
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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

Post by OverlordJ on Thu Dec 05, 2013 11:02 pm

cephalopodAscendant wrote:Decided to come to the dark side, eh?
Dude, I already WAS on the dark side. My side IS the dark side.

But yes, I figured since christmas is coming up I might as well see if I can get one for cheap.
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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

Post by phantasmalDexterity on Fri Dec 06, 2013 10:41 am

I'm contemplating upgrading to XL. If I carry through this plan I can give you my old one for real cheap.
If you want.
Current estimated chance of upper mentioned event to happen: 62,43%
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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

Post by OverlordJ on Fri Dec 06, 2013 12:37 pm

phantasmalDexterity wrote:I'm contemplating upgrading to XL. If I carry through this plan I can give you my old one for real cheap.
If you want.
Current estimated chance of upper mentioned event to happen: 62,43%
I don't think that'd work too well, after all. I'm in Germany and you aren't, are you?
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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

Post by phantasmalDexterity on Fri Dec 06, 2013 1:18 pm

Why would that be a problem, elaborate.

edit: jegus dude, how did you even post that much
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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

Post by d_what on Fri Dec 06, 2013 2:57 pm

European shipping', brah. Shit's Golden. Also I strongly support OJ's XL motion. All those in favour, be everybody.

Heeey cA you missed some math. 
While the chance of getting all six (essentially all four) really is 1/32^4, the chance for getting less than that is NOT 1/32^2, or 1/32^3, etc. Reason being, when you say you're looking for 31 in 3 stats, you've forgotten your combinatorics: there's a bunch of different ways you get get 3 stats. That other stuff only applies if you're being specific, e.g. Hp and Atk and Speed, or all six since there's only one way you can "select" all 6.

So if you want 4 from the safari, and two of those are already taken care of, then what you've got is
(32/32 * 32/32 * 1/32 * 1/32)times the number of ways you can select two perfect IVs from a pool of four, otherwise known as (N c R), or (4 c 2) = 6! So that's 6*(1/32^2) when simplified, or 0.0058, which is ALSO comfortably close to 1 in 200 like I said :Dnote that the chance includes the chance of getting 5 or 6 since NcR doesn't care about what the other IVs that it hasn't selected are doing. They can also be 1/32 and it won't affect the chances - but those specific chances get steadily smaller.

You can do this for the others too! Want 3 from the safari? Well, ignore the given 2. So you want at least 1 from the remaining 4 to be perfect. Intuitively, if the first of the four doesn't give us what we want, we have three chances left. That gives us our multiplier - 4 possible chances. We multiply this by the chance of the event actually happening. That's 1/32, no powers involved since we're only doing it once. 1/32 * 4 is... 0.125, just over one in twelve! Score again! 

So the mafs formula (note: there's multiple ways to right formulae for probability, this one is quickest because NCR gets to ignore all those fiddly random chances of bonus 31s, but when I did the maths originally I did it the long way and got the same answer) would be (1/32^[n-2])*(4 choose [n-2]), where n is the total of perfect IVs we want, minimum. 

Where's Gelatino and Kotakun I feel they could get in on this. MAAAAFTH PAAARTAAAAAYYYY~~

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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

Post by Gelatino on Fri Dec 06, 2013 4:42 pm

yeah that math looks sound

probability in general is a weird field because there's no real way to model results except with tests going to infinity

i could keep using the masuda method for as long as i live and then get somebody else to do it for me after i die and i might still never get a shiny pumpkaboo, or i could get one in the next egg i hatch
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Re: PKMN XY FRIEND SAFARI - Friend Codes and Relevant Mons

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